As I write this blog on the screened porch of a North Alabama lake house, the cicadas are constantly buzzing in the background. I am fascinated by the life cycle of this species—namely, the emergence of the periodical cicadas from belowground every 13 to 17 years. This life cycle got me thinking how the world has changed since the last time the 17-year cicadas emerged. And while in this neck of the woods, some things have changed—new houses have been built and personal watercraft are now constantly buzzing on the lake—some things have remained the same. The nearest grocery store is still 30 minutes away and the iced tea is as sweet as it ever was. Is this mixed scenario really any different for payment card fraud?

Certainly a lot has changed in card payments during the last 17 or so years. We've witnessed the enormous growth of debit card transactions, the continued growth of credit card transactions, the emergence of the e-commerce and mobile payments channels, and the almost global adoption of the EMV (chip) card. As card payment usage has evolved, so has the fraud landscape. Lost and stolen card fraud fell out of vogue while counterfeit card fraud took off only to see stolen card fraud re-emerge when the issuance of EMV cards in most markets thwarted counterfeit card fraud. Point-of-sale (POS) fraud is occurring less often across the globe because of EMV and PIN verification, driving the fraudsters to the Internet to commit card-not-present (CNP) fraud.

But what hasn't changed is the global rate of fraud. An article in the August 2013 Nilson Report estimated that the annual cost of card fraud worldwide in 2012 was 5.2 cents for every $100 spent, resulting in $11.27 billion in losses. This figure compares to Nilson's estimate of fraud losses in 1998, which ran approximately 4.8 cents for every $100 spent and resulted in a little less than $2 billion of fraud. Perhaps a fraud rate in the 5 basis points range is the industry-wide acceptable rate, but with billions of dollars being invested to mitigate fraud, I would like to think that over time the rate would be reduced (though I must admit that I am not sure what the acceptable rate should be).

Maybe this speaks to the tenacity of the card fraudsters. As we in the Retail Payments Risk Forum have often stressed, once one door is fortified, the fraudsters find another door to enter. And if we could dive deeper within the figures, I am certain that is what we would find, according to various estimates of fraud and anecdotal evidence. For example, the emergence of EMV and the use of PIN verification instead of signature verification have reduced POS fraud. Today, CNP fraud rates are significantly higher than POS fraud rates and many industry risk efforts are focused on mitigating CNP fraud.

When the cicadas reappear, undoubtedly the payment card usage and fraud landscape will look different. Perhaps mobile payments will have taken off and the use of biometrics as a method of verification will be commonplace. I feel confident that in 17 years the industry will make substantial strides in reducing e-commerce CNP fraud rates—but also that new areas of fraud will appear. Is the industry prepared to fight the next generation of fraud or will it just continue to Band-Aid the past? Should we expect a 5 basis points rate of fraud when the cicadas emerge in another 17 years? I'd like to think the rate will be lower. At a minimum, hopefully, it will remain as consistent as the sweet iced tea in this neck of the woods.

Photo of Douglas A. King By Douglas A. King, payments risk expert in the Retail Payments Risk Forum at the Atlanta Fed